As the United States cuts back on humanitarian aid in Southeast Asia, China may seize the opportunity to expand its influence in the region. With the Trump administration scaling down USAID programs, Beijing could fill the void left by the US as it steps away from the world stage. While some analysts predict that China will focus more on infrastructure projects rather than ideology-based initiatives, others believe that Beijing may increase its aid and investments in the region.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has already made the country a visible presence in Southeast Asia, but concerns about debt-trap diplomacy linger. A survey revealed that while China is seen as the most influential economic power in the region, there is also widespread distrust of the country. Despite this, China is gradually shifting towards softer forms of aid such as public health and agriculture.
However, China itself is facing challenges such as slowing economic growth, limiting its ability to replace US aid entirely. As China scales back its development assistance in the region, Southeast Asian countries prefer a diversified approach to foreign aid to avoid dependence on a single donor. With the US and China both facing constraints in their aid efforts, the future of development assistance in Southeast Asia remains uncertain.
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