Three tropical cyclones, Rae, Seru, and Alfred, are currently churning in the South Pacific, a rare occurrence that scientists say is unusual but not unprecedented. This season typically runs from November to April, with the last instance of three simultaneous storms occurring in January 2021. Rae has already caused damage in Fiji, while Alfred is expected to bring flooding rains to Queensland, Australia. Seru is forecasted to track near Vanuatu but remain offshore.
The cause of three cyclones at the same time is difficult to pinpoint, but it may be related to the high activity typical during this time of year. Scientists have noted a Madden–Julian Oscillation, a fluctuation in the atmosphere that can enhance cyclone activity, tracking over the southwest Pacific. However, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere means that there may be other unpredictable factors at play.
Brian Tang, an atmospheric science professor, mentioned that having three simultaneous hurricanes in the North Atlantic is not incredibly unusual, although it is a significant event. Gabriel Vecchi, a climate scientist, emphasized the importance of remaining open to the possibility of unpredictable factors impacting the formation of these storms. Despite the rarity of the situation, the region is well-equipped to handle such occurrences and continue to monitor and provide updates as needed.
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