Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert and professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, expressed skepticism regarding the effectiveness of recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. He noted that these attacks notably failed to target critical aspects of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, especially its highly enriched uranium stored in underground tunnels near Isfahan. Despite significant military efforts, Lewis pointed out that there was no attempt to destroy these tunnels or the vast underground facility adjacent to Natanz, which is essential for centrifuge production.
Observing satellite imagery released by Maxar Technologies, he highlighted the presence of 16 cargo trucks at the Fordo site just before the strikes, indicating possible preparations or activities that were not disrupted. Iranian officials, including Ali Shamkhani, have signaled that their commitment to nuclear weapons remains strong, suggesting that even if physical sites are targeted, Iran’s knowledge and will to pursue nuclear capabilities would persist.
Darya Dolzikova from the Royal United Services Institute also commented on the limitations of military action, stating it can only temporarily hinder Iran’s nuclear program rather than completely eliminate it. She argued that even with extensive damage, Iran’s deep-rooted expertise will enable it to rebuild and advance its nuclear capabilities. This sentiment is echoed by observations from FilterLabs, which found that many Iranians believe a nuclear weapon would provide a shield against foreign aggression. Overall, the underlying consensus reflects that military interventions alone are inadequate to fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
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